Warren Buffet reminds investors how to behave now

Times are tough. During these chaotic times, the principals of proper portfolio management are crucial:

1. Don't sell into fear
2. Rebalance your portfolio to buy equity
3. Continue dollar cost averaging
4. Inject cash if you have it

Warren Buffet affirmed this very powerfully in the New York Times last week. Nobody explains it better:

Buy America. I Am.

By Warren E. Buffett


The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America 's future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky's advice: "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

I don't like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I'll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: "Put your mouth where your money was." Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Source: Warren Buffet, "Buy America. I Am.", New York Times, 17th October.

Opportunities in Crisis

MOST in the investment fraternity agree that with the huge dip in all markets, it's time to go shopping for stocks. Selling at this point would be a poor strategy.

Capital Dynamics Asset Management managing director Tan Teng Boo says people are ignoring that oil prices are now so much lower than what it was in July. Come 2009, inflationary pressures will have eased tremendously, and this will primp markets for another run.

"Low oil prices will definitely help emerging markets, as it will also lower interest rates, hence boost consumer spending,"

"We are getting close to the bottom. If you are 100% in cash, then it's time to invest. Even if you're 50% cash, it's time to start buying. We're not there yet, but getting very close to where we should be long-term greedy. This is a once in a lifetime investment opportunity," he says.

Standard & Poor's Asia Equity Research Services director Alexander Chia sees the bottom happening within the next two quarters.

"Yes, for sure I see opportunities in times of crisis. With bad news being plastered everywhere, it is hard for the investor to maintain his perspective. Don't let emotions take over.

"I don't think people should be buying just yet, as investors are still selling into strength, but I believe the bottom is not far off," Chia says. Chia opines that most funds are cashed up and waiting for that point of capitulation.

"Have your assets very liquid, so that when capitulation happens, you have the bullets to buy. For the time being, I see the market trading rangebound to lower," he adds.

A fund manager says that if one follows the Buffet style of investing, (having a 3-5 year view), present times present exceptional opportunities.

"History has proven it. So if you have the money, it is a good time to start investing," he says.

He adds that when there are declines in the major indices, investors will normally compare sectors and look at the more defensive sectors of the economy.

Says JP Morgan Securities head of broking Clement Chew: "In the short term, its unpredictable. But if you have to buy, some of the sectors to look at would include tobacco, power, telecoms, supermarkets and number forecasting operators. Look at companies that offer deep value with some sort of yield to support it," he says.

Chew cautions that investing in commodities is still risky, as there is still a lot of unwinding in commodity trade going on.

Chew isn't too bullish on properties either.

"The newsflow surrounding property stocks isn't so good, and with lending being curtailed and credit shrinkage everywhere, this wouldn't be such a good time. Regional property companies are trading at wider discounts to their revised net asset values. I don't think you will see property stocks going up," says Chew.

Source : The Star, 11^th Oct 2008

Don’t Rely on Your EPF

Many Malaysians believe their Employee Provident Funds (EPF) savings can fund their retirement. This is unrealistic. By relying solely on your EPF savings, you underestimate the amount needed to retire and overestimate how much you can withdraw once retired.

Malaysia's pension scheme is meant to provide contributors with the basic necessities. Unless you plan to make drastic lifestyle changes after you retire, there is a big chance of exhausting all your funds in just a few years, with escalating living costs and increased longevity.

Living on a quarter of your income

The amount that we have in our respective EPF accounts depends on how much we make. For salaried employees, the mandatory contribution rate to the country's pension fund is 23% of the employee's monthly salary; 12% is contributed by the employer and the rest is deducted from the individual's pay. At age 55, contributors can opt to take the sum along with annual EPF dividends declared to finance the rest of their life. Any withdrawals made before this age, such as to buy a property or pay for medical and educational expenses, will reduce the amount that you receive at retirement age.

All things being equal, with a monthly contribution of 23%, those relaying solely on EPF funds for their retirement will have to live on slightly less than a quarter of their current income every month. Is it possible to live frugally on this sum?

Even EPF officials have consistently highlighted the need for contributors to supplement their retirement funds with other sources of income. According to Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadiah, the average Malaysian will have approximately RM120, 000 in their EPF account at the age of 55. This amount provides the retiree with RM500 a month to live on for 20 years. While it can be argued that this meager sum can be stretched to provide for basic necessities (families earning this amount are classified "hardcore poor" and are eligible for government aid), it is not sufficient to provide for those that live beyond the age of 75.

Inflation Surpasses Returns

Inflation is another reason why you should not depend solely on your EPF funds for your retirement.

Inflation pushes up the cost of living. At the very core, inflation means we have to pay more for the same amount (and quality) of goods and services consumed. It eats away the value of your EPF funds. For example, a yearly 5% dividend declared by EPF translates to a real return of 1% if inflation for that particular year averages out at 4%.

As shown in Table 1, the EPF's annual dividends have been just slightly more than the country's inflation rate, which is measured by the consumer price index (CPI).

Table 1: EPF and CPI

		2005	2006	2007	2008
EPF Annual Dividends		5.00%	5.15%	5.80%	n/a
CPI		3.1%	3.6%	2%	5.7%*

*Bank Negara's estimate
Source: EPF and Bank Negara

However, one criticism of the CPI is that it does not reflect the actual consumption patterns of different regions and different income groups. This is could be due to controlled prices for a generic brand of several items in the CPI's basket of goods and services, including cooking oil, white bread and rice. Controlled prices do not reflect actual market prices paid by the majority of Malaysians, especially those living in cities.

Revisions to the CPI basket are also infrequent - the last revision was in 2005. Recognising these shortcomings, the government reportedly reassessed the composition of the CPI and is considering publishing separate inflation rates for urban and rural areas.

CPI is also a poor reflection of inflation experienced by individuals. In June 2008, the CPI jumped to a 26-year high of 7.7%. However, in reality, most people experience a jump in prices that exceed 7.7%. It is more likely that the good and services purchased, especially in the urban areas, reflect the 40% increase in fuel prices and the 18% increase in electricity tariffs.

As more and more producers start passing down rising transportation cost to consumers, we believe inflation will continue at higher levels for some time. This will eat into the value your EPF savings, especially if annual returns declared for this year do not surpass 5.7%, the estimated inflation rate for 2008.

What Can Be Done?

The first step is to stop depending on the EPF. Take responsibility for your retirement and invest with a clear goal in mind. The objective is to invest in assets such as equities that have historically been able to provide inflation-beating returns.

To get started, here are some tips:

1. Invest now.
The sooner you start investing, the sooner you start building your wealth. Take a long-term view and invest small sums over a long period.

2. Take a look at how much you will need to retire.
This is, at best, a guesstimate of the expenses that you will incur when retired. Aim for a higher percentage of your current income, for example 65% to 80% of what you are earning now to sustain the same lifestyle once you stop earning.

3. Diversify.
This can be easily done with unit trust funds. It is possible to invest your EPF funds in approved local funds but your selected investments must make better returns than EPF's annual dividends. However you still need to diversify your portfolio with different asset classes and geographical coverage.

4. No matter what happens – whether the market falls or climbs - always keep retirement as a financial goal and stay invested